000
ABNT20 KNHC 191139
TWOAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Tropical Depression Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022013)
  ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON ITS WAY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 the center of TWO was located near 19.4, -94.0 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression TWO

• Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 8A
  Issued at 700 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 191137 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013 700 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON ITS WAY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 94.0W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
• Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 8
  Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 19 2013

  
  000
  WTNT22 KNHC 190835
  TCMAT2
   
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
  0900 UTC WED JUN 19 2013
   
  CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
   
  THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
  TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA EL LAGARTO WESTWARD TO BARRA DE
  NAUTLA.
   
  SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
   
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
  * PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO
   
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
  EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
  TO 36 HOURS.
   
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  93.3W AT 19/0900Z
  POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
   
  PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT
   
  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
  MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
  WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
  MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
   
  REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  93.3W AT 19/0900Z
  AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N  93.0W
   
  FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.4N  94.4W
  MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
   
  FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.4N  95.4W
  MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
  34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.3N  96.3W...INLAND
  MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
  34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
   
  FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.2N  97.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
   
  FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
   
  REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N  93.3W
   
  NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
   
  $$
  FORECASTER PASCH
   
   
  
  

• Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 8
  Issued at 400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

  
  000
  WTNT42 KNHC 190838
  TCDAT2
   
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
  400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
   
  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A
  LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CONVECTIVE
  BANDING FEATURE BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE DISTINCT OVER THE NORTHERN
  PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
  ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 25 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM A FEW
  HOURS AGO...THAT CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
  OF THE DEPRESSION...SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  THE CYCLONE
  IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH-
  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A
  SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
  ALSO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
  ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER THE SYSTEM WHEN IT NEARS THE COAST.  THE
  OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
  TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
  MOST RECENT STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
  
  THE CENTER OF THIS SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE ON
  NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION
  IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 300/8.  A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
  THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
  TEXAS SHOULD INDUCE SOME ADDITIONAL DECELERATION ALONG WITH A TURN
  TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE
  NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
  LATEST ECMWF MODEL FORECAST...AND DELAYS THE TIME OF LANDFALL
  IN MEXICO A LITTLE IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST ADVISORY.
  
  BASED ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
  REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A WARNING FOR A PORTION OF
  THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.  
  
  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...
  THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
  SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
  SOUTHERN MEXICO.
   
  FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
   
  INIT  19/0900Z 19.3N  93.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
   12H  19/1800Z 19.4N  94.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
   24H  20/0600Z 19.4N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
   36H  20/1800Z 19.3N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
   48H  21/0600Z 19.2N  97.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
   
  $$
  FORECASTER PASCH
   
  
  

• Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
  Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 19 2013

  
  000
  FONT12 KNHC 190837
  PWSAT2
                                                                      
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8         
  NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013               
  0900 UTC WED JUN 19 2013                                            
                                                                      
  AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR     
  LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
  WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                      
  Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
     ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
     CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                      
                                                                      
  I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                      
  CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
  AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
  PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
  THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                      
                                                                      
        - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                      
  VALID TIME   18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
  FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
  DISSIPATED       1       7      10      31      NA      NA      NA
  TROP DEPRESSION 57      40      36      42      NA      NA      NA
  TROPICAL STORM  41      50      51      25      NA      NA      NA
  HURRICANE        1       2       4       2      NA      NA      NA
  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
  HUR CAT 1        1       2       4       2      NA      NA      NA
  HUR CAT 2        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
  HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
  HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
  HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X      NA      NA      NA
  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
  FCST MAX WIND   30KT    35KT    35KT    20KT    NA      NA      NA  
                                                                      
                                                                      
  II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                      
  CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
     ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
     ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
     ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
  FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
      IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
          AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
     (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
          06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                      
  PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
  PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
  THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
  PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
  PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                      
                                                                      
    - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                      
                 FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
    TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
  PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
               18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                      
  FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                      
  TAMPICO MX     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
   
  TUXPAN MX      34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
   
  VERACRUZ MX    34  1  14(15)   9(24)   3(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
  VERACRUZ MX    50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
   
  $$                                                                  
  FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
  
  

• Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
  
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 11:39:30 GMT
  
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 19 Jun 2013 09:04:44 GMT